Politics: Hispanics in Texas Lean a Little More Right Than Most

Nobody is working harder to get out the Latino Vote than the Democratic Party in Texas. With a heated gubernatorial campaign looming on the horizon, the Democrats are counting on the Hispanic vote to deliver the governor's mansion and a host of other key positions to "Turn Texas Blue."

But getting the Latino vote may be a mixed bag in Texas, where Latinos are far more likely to be Republican than in other states according to a new Gallup poll.

To be sure, the Latino vote in Texas still leans to the Democratic side of the fence, but in Texas 47 percent of Latinos either lean to the right (27 percent) or consider themselves independent (20 percent). Democrats in Texas can still count on 46 percent of the vote, which would be 51 percent in other states.

"Long-suffering Texas Democrats appear to have some hope that their political fortunes in the Lone Star state could soon reverse," the poll's editors noted. "The growing Hispanic population, along with the solidly Democratic African-American population, present the best path for the party to move Texas out of its consistent 'red state' category and into a more competitive position. Texan Hispanics are more likely to identify as Democrat than Republican, and this could prove advantageous to Democrats.

"At the same time, the path toward victory for Democrats may not be as smooth or linear as this logic might suggest. Hispanics in Texas are more likely to identify as Republican than are Hispanics elsewhere, and the Republican Party in Texas has seen more growth in Hispanic support over the past five years than the Democratic Party. While this has not changed the overall equation -- Democrats still lead big among Texan Hispanics -- it does suggest the GOP may be more competitive with this bloc than many assume."

Republican Texans know their work is cut out for them to stay on top in the rapidly-changing state.

 "It continues to be a top priority of the Republican Party that we continue our engagement with the Hispanic community," said Steve Munisteri, chairman of the Republican Party of Texas, to NBC. "As a result, today we have seven full time employees committed to engaging Hispanic voters in Texas."

While poll-watchers could probably still lay good money on the GOP coming through the next election cycle well intact in Texas, the writing does appear on the wall to some observers.

"The exploding Latino population will continue to give Democrats hope to make this state competitive; as long as Latinos favor Democrats and population trends continue in the current direction, there will be a date when the state will be competitive," writes Aaron Blake of the Washington Post. "But Texas probably isn't turning purple quite as quickly as the Latino population growth might lead us to believe."